- Company: Halcyon Research, Inc.
- Phone: (941) 228-5104
- Cell: (941) 228-5104
- Website: www.halcyonresearch.com
Specialties & Experience
General Specialties: Statistics and Fraud
Specialty Focus: Healthcare audit, sampling, samples, extrapolation, RAT-STATS, UPIC, ZPIC, MIC, Medicare, Medicaid, commercial insurance, litigation support
Education: BA, Sociology, Tufts University; MA, Measurement & Statistics, University of Delaware; PhD, Statistics & Evaluation, University of Delaware
Years in Practice: 25
Number of Times Deposed/Testified in Last 4 Yrs: 5
Chosen by Texas HHSC-OIG, CMS, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff, I bring 25 years of experience explaining healthcare statistics in plain English to a wide range of audiences, as exemplified through my first book, The Tao of Statistics: A Path to Understanding (With No Math). Further, I have provided testimony for Western Integrity Center (WIC), Zone Program Integrity Contractor (ZPIC), Medicaid Integrity Contractor (MIC), and commercial health cases, individually exceeding $100,000,000. As an accepted expert witness, I stand on the shoulders of the OIG and CMS for the techniques and approaches that I employ with healthcare claims. In so doing, I make few independent decisions and am less susceptible to Analytic Gap Test issues arising from Daubert challenges than statisticians who use less well endorsed procedures. My approaches to healthcare claims sampling, extrapolation, and defense appealed to HHSC-OIG (Texas), in particular, when their Medicaid audit department decided to overhaul its sampling and extrapolation procedures. I revamped their procedures to correspond to the then-current CMS methodologies and national OIG statistical techniques and approaches to extrapolation. In addition to issues surrounding sampling and extrapolation, I trained HHSC-OIG’s legal staff on how (and on what) to challenge opposing healthcare statisticians. The CMS Project Director for QISMC stated on an open call with the nation’s Medicare MCOs that “Dr. Keller is a national resource” for sampling and extrapolation methods and techniques, and that CMS would agree to all of my decisions in that regard for their projects and audits. The Joint Chiefs of Staff requested that I train TRICARE staff in healthcare sampling and extrapolation techniques. I have never been disqualified as a statistics expert in any legal setting. Lastly, my judgment and decisions on sampling and extrapolation have set national policy (Payment Error Rate Measurement Program, Chief Statistician).